POSITIVE NEWS HELP AQUINO KEEP LEAD: POLL (ABS-CBN NEWS)

April 14, 2010 Leave a comment

75% of news about Noynoy positive; 62% for Villar


MANILA, Philippines – Positive news about Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III have helped him maintain his lead in the presidential race, according to a poll conducted by broadsheet newspaper Manila Standard Today, published on Monday.

In the latest poll, conducted April 4 to 6 or just over a month before election day, Liberal Party presidential candidate Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III kept a double-digit lead over his closest rival Nacionalista Party bet Sen. Manny Villar.

In his survey commentary, Manila Standard’s resident pollster Pedro Laylo Jr., formerly with Social Weather Stations (SWS), said what has helped Aquino “maintain the upper hand” are the high levels of news awareness about him, mostly positive news, especially from television.

“The latest poll gives a glimpse into how the mass media, particularly television news, are influencing the voting public by framing the agenda. In the case of the current status of the presidential race, what the media report has created an effect on presidential vote decisions,” Laylo said.

Laylo said the “extent of news awareness” for Aquino was at 73% compared to Villar’s 79%; Estrada’s was at 60%; Teodoro’s was at 55%.

The Manila Standard poll asked voters to qualify whether the news they received about the candidate were positive or negative. (Extent of news awareness is different from whether news is positive or negative.)

“The results show Aquino having an edge with 75% of those aware of news about him saying they received mostly positive news,” Laylo said. “For Villar, the figure was only 62%; for Estrada, only 52%; and for Teodoro, only 58%.”

In terms of negative news, it was highest for Estrada with 48%; Teodoro with 42%; Villar with 38; Aquino with 25%.

“The multiplier effect works to the advantage of Aquino, who has significantly more voters saying that the kind of news they have received regarding him were mostly positive,” Laylo said.

Aquino keeps double-digit lead

The survey, conducted between April 4 to 6 among 2,500 respondents, had Aquino still in the lead with 37% while Villar was at 26%.

Their rankings were statistically the same as the March 21 to 28 survey by Pulse Asia released last week, April 6, where Aquino had 37% while Villar had 25%

Teodoro went up slightly from 6% in March to 8% in first week of April, while Estrada gained one 1 percentage point.

Those undecided increased from 4% in March to 9% in April. The 9% undecided was the same as in the Pulse Asia survey.

TV most influential

The Manila Standard poll said a “great majority–ranging from 80% to 85%–of voters nationwide trust TV programs as their major source of news.”

Only 9% cited radio programs, 6% cited word of mouth, and 1% cited newspapers.

“The rise of television as the medium by which most voters secure information on candidates, specifically those running for the highest posts, has become prevalent in past election,” Laylo said.

When asked which TV news programs voters considered trustworthy, Laylo said “60 to 63 percent of the viewing public considered news and public affairs programs from the ABS-CBN network compared to about 35 to 38% who mentioned news and public affairs programs from the GMA network. About 2 percent mentioned news programs from other TV networks.”

“Positive TV news coverage generates greater trust, which in turn translates into a higher vote conversion for presidential candidates,” Laylo said.

Binay catches up for 2nd place

In the same survey, Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas of the Liberal Party kept a big 15-point lead over Loren Legarda of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC).

Roxas had 39% support compared to Legarda’s 24%.

As in the Pulse Asia survey, Manila Standard’s poll showed Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay with 22%, which means he had caught up with Legarda, given the survey’s plus/minus 2% margin of error.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/04/12/10/positive-news-help-aquino-keep-lead-poll

Categories: CITATIONS

NO CHANGE IN TOP 16 IN SENATE RACE

April 13, 2010 Leave a comment

There was no change in the top 16 choices for senator in the latest Manila Standard survey of 2,500 registered voters conducted from April 4 to 6.

In the last three survey months, the top three places continued to be occupied by incumbent senators: Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr.,  Jinggoy Estrada and Miriam Defensor Santiago.

The top 16 in April were Revilla (54 percent),  Estrada (50 percent), Santiago (43 percent), Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (36 percent), Senator Pilar “Pia” Cayetano (35 percent), former Senator Vicente “Tito” Sotto III (31 percent), former Senator Franklin “Frank” Drilon (31 percent), former Senator Ralph Recto (26 percent), Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos (25 percent), Senator Lito Lapid (24 percent), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (19 percent), former Rep. Gilbert Remulla (18 percent), Mr. Jose “Joey” De Venecia III (18 percent), Gwendolyn Pimentel (16 percent), Teofisto Guingona III (16 percent), and Rozzano Ruffy Biazon (14 percent).

As in the previous Manila Standard 2010 polls, the respondents were asked to cast their votes for 12 senators together with their presidential and vice presidential choices in a ballot patterned after the official form that will be used in the May 10 election.

On average, voters chose only seven names for Senator.  Metro Manila, which previously registered the most number of preferences of about nine names chosen, fell to the national average in the April survey.

Those who did not shade any oval corresponding to their preference for Senator were considered as undecided.  They accounted for 10 percent of the voters.

Tables MST Poll 04_4-6_2010 2nd article 041110

TV NEWS COVERAGE AFFECT CURRENT PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES

April 12, 2010 Leave a comment

By Pedro “Junie” Laylo Jr., Standard Resident Pollster

The January and February 2010 Laylo Reports explained how political ads of presidential candidates accounted for the dynamics of the presidential votes at that time.  The March 2010 Laylo Report expounded on how news awareness about presidential candidates affected voter preferences for president.  The April 4-6, 2010 Manila Standard poll further explores this aspect of the vote and has found out that the kind of news voters receive have a significant impact on presidential preferences.

In the recent survey, Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino continues to lead the pack and his margin over Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr. is 11 percentage points. What has helped him maintain this upper hand?

The latest poll gives a glimpse into how the mass media, particularly television news, are influencing the voting public by framing the agenda. In the case of the current status of the presidential race, what the media report, to a certain extent, has created an effect on presidential vote decisions.

News Awareness and Type of News Received

The extent of news awareness of voters on Presidential candidates remains high, especially for the top two contenders: Aquino (73 percent) and Villar (79 percent).  Levels of news awareness for Estrada and Teodoro are also in the majorities (60 percent and 55 percent respectively) but not as high as those of Aquino and Villar.

For the April 4-6 Standard Poll, voters were also asked to qualify, on the overall, whether the kind of news they have received regarding the candidates were mostly positive or mostly negative. Results show Aquino having an edge — with 75 percent of those aware of news about him saying they received mostly positive news.

For Villar, the figure was only 62 percent; for Estrada, only 52 percent; and for Teodoro, only 58 percent.  The percentages of those who received mostly negative news about the presidential candidates are as follows: 25 percent for Aquino, 38 percent for Villar, 48 percent for Estrada and 42 percent for Teodoro.

The impact of access to news and the quality of news voters received about presidential candidates can be assessed by looking at the vote conversion rates.

Aquino’s 37 percent vote share jumps to 41 percent among those who were aware of news about him and jumps even higher to 48 percent among those who say that the kind of news they received about him were mostly positive.

For Villar, his 25 percent vote share only delivers a measly 28 percent if they are aware of news about him and moves to only 34 percent among those who assessed that the type of news they received about him were positive.

The multiplier effect works to the advantage of Aquino who has significantly more voters saying that the kind of news they have received regarding him were mostly positive.

Given that the vote conversion rates of Estrada, Teodoro and all the other presidential candidates are much lower coupled with the relatively lower levels of news awareness as well as lower levels of perceived positive news generated about them, they currently stand little to gain in terms of votes.

The Trust Factor

Trust levels of candidates also continue to play an important part in explaining the presidential race. The latest survey continued to show declines in net trust ratings for the leading contenders. But it is important to note that Aquino’s drops in net trust levels (from +54 in February to +50 in March to +46 in early April) were not as bad as Villar’s decreasing net trust levels (from a high +53 in February to +35 in March to +28 in early April). For the other presidential contenders, their net trust levels were all way below the two leading contenders.

The trust-to-vote conversion rates offer additional evidence of why Aquino continues to lead the presidential race.  Aquino’s voter conversion rate among those who trust him continues to be high at 55 percent – an eight-point jump from 47 percent in February. In the case of Villar, it moved by only three points up — from 43 percent in February to 46 percent in April.

Relationship of Type of News Received and Trust in Presidentiables

What is the relationship between the types of news received by voters on the presidential candidates with their levels of trust for them?  Tests of correlation show that the kind of news received by voters drive the level of trust voters have on presidential candidates.

This means that the more positive news voters say they received about a candidate, the greater trust they have for that specific candidate.

Most Trusted Source of News

Where do voters get most of their information?  In the series of Manila Standard polls, voters were asked their most trusted source of news.  A great majority — ranging from 80 percent to 85 percent — of voters nationwide trust TV programs as their major source of news.

Only about 9 percent cite radio programs, 6 percent cite  word of mouth, and 1 percent cite newspapers.  The rise of television as the medium by which most voters secure information on candidates, specifically those running for the highest posts, has become prevalent in past election years.

When probed on what TV news programs voters considered most trustworthy, around 60 to 63 percent of the viewing public considers news and public affairs programs from the ABS-CBN network compared to about 35 to 38 percent who mentioned news and public affairs programs from the GMA network. About 2 percent mentioned news programs from other TV networks.

Linking this with the type of news received by the voting public for each of the presidential candidates, we now can see a better picture of how Aquino was able to maintain his current lead in the presidential race.  Positive TV news coverage generates greater trust, which in turn translates into a higher vote conversion for presidential candidates.

It is also a clear indication of how the mass media – particularly TV news – are currently influencing how the voting public should view the presidential candidates, thus affecting their vote decisions.

In the succeeding Manila Standard polls, as we get closer to Election Day, we shall see if such a pattern persists and if it will define the final presidential election results.

The results of the Manila Standard Today surveys and The Laylo Report can be accessed in the web at https://mstpoll.wordpress.com. Questions, comments can be sent via email to mstpoll@gmail.com.

Tables TV NEWS COVERAGE AFFECT CURRENT PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES 0410-RP

BINAY CATCHES UP WITH LEGARDA FOR 2ND SPOT

April 12, 2010 1 comment

The Liberal Party’s Senator Manuel Roxas maintained a 15-pont lead in the vice presidential race in April, while Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay pulled within two points of second placer Senator Loren Legarda, the latest Manila Standard poll showed.

Nationwide, Roxas received 39 percent of the vote, Legarda had 24 percent and Binay 22 percent, indicating a closer race for the second spot. Binay’s gains came at the expense of Legarda, who lost five points from March.

The survey, conducted between April 4 and 6, asked 2,500 registered voters nationwide to cast their ballots for president, vice president and senators, said Pedro Laylo Jr., resident pollster at the Manila Standard. The survey had a margin of error of 2 percent.

Former Metro Manila Development Authority Chairman Bayani Fernando and the administration candidate, Edu Manzano, had 3 percent each, and Perfecto Yasay Jr. had 1 percent. Some 7 percent of the respondents were undecided.

Binay held the upper hand in Metro Manila with 39 percent, a 12-point increase from March at the expense of Roxas and Legarda, who both went down 7 points. The number of undecided also jumped from 4 percent to 11 percent in the National Capital Region.

In North and Central Luzon and South Luzon and the Bicol regions, Roxas was ahead of Legarda, whose votes continued to slide. Binay gained 3 percentage points.

In South Luzon and the Bicol regions, Binay came to a statistical draw with Legarda for second place.

In the Visayas, Roxas gained 4 more percentage points, reaching a majority of 53 percent vote share over Legarda’s 22 percent. Legarda suffered further declines as Binay gained 3 points.

In Mindanao, Roxas led the race with 36 percent after being tied with Legarda in the last survey. Legarda’s vote share decreased to 30 percent. The 2-point and 8-point decrease in support for Roxas and Legarda benefited Binay, who went up 6 points, and Manzano, who gained 3 points. The number of undecideds rose 3 points to 8 percent.

Among the upper and middle-income classes, Roxas held 38 percent, while Binay surged ahead of Legarda with 28 percent. Legarda was unchanged at 16 percent in this segment.

A similar trend was seen among poor voters, where Roxas led with 40 percent and Binay increased his share to 24 percent. Among the very poor, Roxas was ahead with 37 percent, Legarda lost points to 31 percent, while Binay picked up four more points to 18 percent.

Roxas retained his high vote share across age groups. Legarda lost significant points among those aged 25 and older and was practically in a dead heat with Binay, who had noteworthy increases across all age-brackets.

Roxas led regardless of gender, but Binay posted significant gains among both male and female voters, taking away votes mostly from Legarda.

Tables BINAY CATCHES UP WITH LEGARDA FOR 2ND SPOT 0410-RP

AQUINO MAINTAINS DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD OVER VILLAR IN LATEST SURVEY

April 12, 2010 1 comment

Front-runner and Liberal Party candidate Senator Benigno Aquino III saw a slight decline in his lead over his closest rival, Nacionalista Party standard bearer Senator Manuel Villar Jr., as administration bet Gilberto Teodoro Jr. picked up two percentage points in the latest Manila Standard poll.

The survey, conducted between April 4 and 6, asked 2,500 registered voters nationwide to cast their ballots for president, vice president and senators, said Pedro Laylo Jr., resident pollster at the Manila Standard. The survey had a margin of error of 2 percent.

Nationwide, Aquino received 37 percent of the vote, two points down from his showing in March, while Villar stayed steady at 26 percent.

Deposed President Joseph Estrada picked up a point to gain 18 percent, while Teodoro gained two points to grab 8 percent, his best showing yet since polling began. Senator Richard Gordon and evangelist Eddie Villanueva both had 2 percent.

Aquino suffered a dramatic 11-point drop in Metro Manila, which was picked up in part by Estrada, who gained 3 points, and Teodoro, who went up one point. The number of undecided rose from 4 percent in March to 9 percent in April.

In North and Central Luzon, Villar maintained a narrow 4 percent lead over Aquino. In the same region, Estrada lost two points to take a 23-percent share, while Teodoro picked up the same amount to garner 9 percent.

Teodoro and Estrada also picked up 2-point gains in South Luzon and the Bicol regions at the expense of the front-runner, whose large 42 percent there tapered to 38 percent.

In the Visayas, Aquino took a commanding 51 percent of the vote, 24 points ahead of Villar.

Teodoro picked up three points in Mindanao to get 9 percent, taking votes from Aquino (34 percent) and Villar (26 percent).

Among upper and middle class voters, Aquino beat Villar 33 percent to 22 percent. Teodoro came in third among these voters, with 13 percent, beating Estrada with 10 percent.

Among poor voters, Aquino led Villar 38 percent to 26 percent, while Estrada had 16 percent and Teodoro had 8 percent.

Among the poorest class, Aquino led Villar 37 percent to 29 percent, while Estrada had 22 percent and Teodoro had 6 percent.

Metro Manila had the highest percentage of undecided voters in April, taking the top spot previously held by North and Central Luzon in previous surveys.

Teodoro registered a 4-point gain among voters aged 18 to 24, but Aquino still held 38 percent of this age group. The administration bet also picked up gains from Aquino and Villar in the 25-to-34 age bracket.

Aquino’s lead among the 35-to-44-year-olds shrank as Villar and Estrada gained. Among those 45 and older, Aquino held a 14-point lead over Villar.

Support for Aquino and Villar among females continued to drop, while Teodoro and Estrada realized slight gains.

Tables Aquino maintains double-digit lead over Villar 0410-RP

LEFTISTS LEAD PARTY-LIST RACE IN NEW POLL

March 31, 2010 1 comment

Leftist groups Gabriela and Bayan Muna lead the race for party-list seats in Congress, with each getting 6 percent of the vote in the latest Manila Standard Poll.

The nationwide survey, which asked 2,500 registered voters to cast ballots for their presidential, vice presidential and senatorial choices, was conducted from March 21 to 23, and had a margin of error of two percentage points.

For the first time since it was conducted in December, the poll also asked respondents to cast votes for their party-list choices, said Pedro Laylo Jr., resident pollster at Manila Standard.

Only 16 party-list groups out of a total of 187 that had submitted nominees made it, garnering at least 2 percent of the total votes cast for party-list groups.

Those that garnered at least 2 percent were AKB, An Waray and Akbayan with 4 percent each; A Teacher, Anakpawis, Senior Citizens, Buhay and Kabataan with 3 percent each; and Apec, 1 Ang Pamilya, Kalinga, Abono, Anak and Coop-Natcco with 2 percent each.

Controversy continues to surround party-list representation, with militant groups accusing allies of President Arroyo, including her son, Rep. Juan Miguel Arroyo, and former Energy Secretary Angelo Reyes, of abusing the system by representing minority groups to which they do not belong, and in an attempt to stack the House of Representatives with friendly congressmen.

The party-list that nominated Reyes, 1 Utak, obtained only 1 percent in the survey, while Ang Galing Pinoy, the group that Rep. Arroyo is representing did not make it to the poll.

As in previous surveys, there were 300 respondents from Metro Manila, 550 from North and Central Luzon, 540 from South Luzon and the Bicol Region, 510 in the Visayas, and 600 in Mindanao in a breakdown that reflects the latest proportion of registered voters.

Registered voters were asked their intention to vote, and only those who said they definitely would vote in May were asked to accomplish a ballot and shade the oval space corresponding to their choices. After that, their ballot was dropped into a box in a manner that simulates what will happen during the actual computerized elections in May 10.

Table Leftists lead party-list race in new poll 0310-RP

AVERAGE VOTERS PICK ONLY 7 SENATORS

March 30, 2010 Leave a comment

Re-electionist and former senators continued to dominate the top 12 spots in the Senate race in the laest Manila Standard Poll.

The survey, which asked 2,500 registered voters to cast ballots for their presidential, vice-presidential and senatorial choices, was conducted from March 21 to 23, and had a margin of error of two percentage points.

Senator Ramon Revilla Jr. continued to lead the pack with 53 percent, followed by Senator Jinggoy Estrada with 50 percent in second place. Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago was still in third place with 40 percent.

Sharing the fourth and fifth places were Senator Pia Cayetano and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, both with 36 percent.

In the sixth and seventh places were former senators Franklin Drilon and Vicente Sotto III, both with 33 percent.

Coming in eighth was former senator Ralph Recto with 27 percent, followed by Senator Lito Lapid at ninth with 25 percent, and Rep. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at 10th with 24 percent.

Rounding out the 11th and 12th places were former Senator Sergio Osmeña III with 21 percent and Jose de Venecia III with 18 percent.

Given the survey’s margin of error, candidates reaching up to the 20th spot still had a chance of joining the winner’s circle, said Pedro Laylo Jr., Manila Standard’s resident pollster.

As in the January and February polls, the senatorial votes were cast together with the presidential and vice presidential votes by asking the respondents to accomplish a ballot that was designed to look like the official ballot for the May 10 elections. This was done to simulate the voting experience in the country’s first automated elections.

At the national level, the Liberal Party accounted for three winners, as did the Nacionalista Party and the Partido ng Masang Pilipino. The ruing Lakas-Kampi-CMD had two in the winning circle, while the Nationalist People’s Coalition had one.

In Metro Manila, the Liberal Party and the Nacionalista Party both had four winners, while the Partido ng Masang Pilipino had three winners each. Lakas had two and the Nationalist People’s Coalition had one.

In South Luzon, the Nacionalistas led with four winners, followed by three form the Liberals, two each from the Partido ng Masang Pilipino and Lakas, and one from the Nationalist People’s Coalition.

Voters, on average, chose seven names for the Senate race. Metro Manila registered the most number of preferences with nine names chosen in the ballot.

Those who did not shade any oval corresponding to their preference for senator were considered undecided, and accounted for 11 percent of the voters, up from 7 percent in the February poll. The highest incidence of undecided voters was again in North and Central Luzon, with 17 percent.

Tables Avereage voters pick only 7 senators 0310-RP