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BINAY PULLS AWAY FROM LEGARDA, HAS ROXAS IN SIGHT

May 3, 2010 1 comment

SENATOR Manuel Roxas II maintained his lead in the vice presidential race while Senator Loren Legarda continued to lose ground to Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, the latest Manila Standard survey showed.

The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent, showed Roxas ahead at 38 percent nationwide, followed by Binay at 28 percent and Legarda at 20 percent.

Legarda lost three percentage points, while Binay picked up six. Administration bet Eduardo Manzano had 3 percent, while former Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando had 2 percent.  All the other candidates had ratings of 1 percent or lower.

Binay picked up most of his support from the very poor voters, said Pedro Laylo Jr., resident pollster at Manila Standard.  Roxas and Legarda lost three percentage points each in Metro Manila, while Binay gained five points.

Legarda also lost five points in South and Central Luzon, where Binay picked up six points.

Among the high-income group, Roxas lost eight points to 41 percent, while Binay gained eight points to 34 percent. Legarda gained 2 percent.

Binay picked up 11 points among the very poor voters, moving his vote share to 28 percent.  Roxas lost nine percentage points and Legarda two in the same income group.

Legarda said she was not concerned by Binay’s recent gains in the opinion surveys, telling a crowd on the campaign trail that in her long years as a politician, she had never met a person who admitted that he or she had taken a survey form from any of the established research companies.

Tables MST Poll 04_25-27_2010 2nd article 043010

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Categories: RECENT MST POLL NEWS

ESTRADA OVERTAKES VILLAR; NEGATIVE ATTACKS TAKE TOLL

May 3, 2010 4 comments

OUSTED President Joseph Estrada overtook Senator Manuel Villar Jr. for second place in the presidential race, while frontrunner Benigno Aquino III maintained his lead, the latest Manila Standard survey showed.

Conducted between April 25 and 27, the survey asked 2,500 registered voters who intend to vote in the May 10 elections to cast their votes for president, vice president and senators on a form similar to the official ballot that will be used on May 10.

The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent, showed Aquino ahead nationwide with 38 percent, followed by Estrada with 22 percent and Villar with 20 percent.  The margin of error meant Estrada and Villar can be considered in a statistical tie.

Administration bet Gilberto Teodoro Jr. maintained his 9-percent showing, while evangelist Eddie Villanueva edged up to 3 percent.  Senator Richard Gordon had 2 percent, while other candidates had less than 1 percent.

Manila Standard resident pollster Pedro Laylo Jr. said the latest poll showed that the spate of negative news about Villar had hurt the Nacionalista standard bearer, costing him support from the poor voters that he had won from Estrada.

In Metro Manila, Aquino’s support slipped one point to 37 percent from the previous week’s, while Estrada gained two points at 26 percent. Villar maintained his 13-percent share of the vote.

Aquino posted a three-point gain in North and Central Luzon, and largely at the expense of Estrada who lost three points to 18 percent. Villar maintained his 25-percent share in the region.

In last week’s survey, Estrada also picked up points in Southern Luzon and the Bicol region, the Visayas and Mindanao, mostly at Villar’s expense.

Estrada moved ahead after he attacked Villar in a press conference, accusing him of pressuring Stock Exchange officials to approve the listing of his real estate company, Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc.  Despite the attack, the ousted leader still slid 5 points in his ratings from the high-income voters, and merely maintained his 20-percent support from the poor.  But among the very poor, Estrada gained nine points, while Villar lost five points and Aquino lost two.

Tables MST Poll 04_25-27_2010 1st article 043010

Categories: RECENT MST POLL NEWS

LIM STAYS FRONTRUNNER IN MANILA STANDARD POLL

April 27, 2010 Leave a comment

MAYOR Alfredo Lim maintains an incumbent’s edge in the May 2010 elections, according to the April edition of the Manila Standard poll of 500 registered voters who intend to cast their ballots in the capital.

Interviewed in-person last April 18 to 20, the 500 respondents were allocated and  selected proportionate to the voting population in each of the city’s six districts based on the February 2010 data of the Commission on Elections.  The margin of error for the city-wide results is +/-4 percentage points.

Lim had 61 percent of total votes, leaving Former mayor and Environment Secretary Joselito Atienza and Former National Police Chief Avelino Razon Jr. with 25 and 11 percent, respectively.

Resident pollster Pedro Laylo Jr. noted that the vote patterns vis-a-vis the December 2009 Standard poll stayed unchanged.

The April survey showed Lim obtaining the highest percentage in the 2nd District at 71 percent versus Atienza’s best showing in the 5th District at 39 percent.  Ma. Theresa Hizon got 0.2 percent and only 3 percent were undecided.

Among Lim voters, 73 percent were committed to him on election day.  Atienza had percent steadfast voters with Razon holding 55 percent loyal voters, poll results showed.

The top reasons cited for choosing Lim were his accomplishments as mayor, ability to curb crime/illegal activities, being pro-poor, and the perception that he is not corrupt.

Atienza is preferred for his experience and achievements as mayor, being pro-poor and approachable.

A good majority of Razon voters wanted to try his kind of leadership, citing his crime-fighting reputation as a former top police official.

In 14 traits presented, Lim was chosen by a majority as the candidate exemplifying eight attributes.

In the vice mayoral race, incumbent Isko Moreno kept the lead but compared to the December Standard poll, his 94 percent vote share tapered to 68 percent in the April survey.

Rival Councilor Bonjay Isip-Garcia cornered 24 percent while 10 percent of the respondents said they were undecided on their choice of the mayor’s running mate.

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Categories: RECENT MST POLL NEWS

LAWMAKERS LEAD LATEST SENATORIAL POLL

April 27, 2010 Leave a comment

THE top 12 spots in the senatorial race continued to be dominated by current and former senators in the latest Manila Standard poll, except for Rep. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and whistleblower Jose de Venecia III.

Conducted between April 18 and 20, the poll asked 2,500 registered voters nationwide to cast their votes for president, vice president, and 12 senators.

As in the previous four surveys, the top three places went to Senators Ramon Revilla Jr. (50 percent), Jinggoy Estrada (49 percent), and Miriam Defensor-Santiago (41 percent).

This month, they were followed by Senate President Juan Ponce-Enrile (37 percent), Senator Pia Cayetano (33 percent), former Senator Franklin Drilon (32 percent), former Senators Ralph Recto and Vicente Sotto III (both with 28 percent), Marcos (27 percent), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (25 percent), Senator Lito Lapid (23 percent), and de Venecia (19 percent).

The 13th to 16th positions were occupied by Gwendolyn Pimentel (17 percent), former Rep. Gilbert Remulla (17 percent), Rep. Teofisto Guingona III (16 percent) and Rep. Rozzano Rufino Biazon (16 percent).

As in previous polls, the respondents were asked to accomplish a form that was designed to look like the official ballots to be used in the May 10 automated elections.  The survey had a margin of error of 2 percent.

Voters, on average, chose seven names for senator.

Those who did not shade any ovals corresponding to their preferences for senator were considered undecided, a category that rose to 12 percent.

Tables MST Poll 04_18-20_2010 3rd article 042510

Categories: RECENT MST POLL NEWS

BINAY STATISTICALLY TIED WITH LEGARDA IN NEW POLL

April 26, 2010 1 comment

SENATOR Manuel Roxas II widened his lead to 18 percentage points over vice presidential rival and fellow Senator Loren Legarda, 41 percent to 23 percent, as Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay continued to catch up in the latest Manila Standard poll.

Binay was the choice of 22 percent of the 2,500 respondents in the April 18 to 20 survey, placing him in a statistical tie with Legarda, said Manila Standard resident pollster Pedro Laylo Jr.

Former Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando obtained 3 percent, while administration bet Eduardo Manzano took 2 percent.

Roxas regained the lead in Metro Manila with 37 percent, but Binay was at his heels with 35 percent.  Compared to the April 4 to 6 survey, Binay lost 4 percentage points while Roxas gained 6 points.  Legarda also picked up a 2-percentage point increase, staying in third place with just 13 percent.  The number of undecided voters slipped to 9 percent from the previous month’s 11 percent.

Roxas stayed ahead of Legarda and Binay in the North, Central and South Luzon and Bicol regions.  Legarda’s vote share continued to slide, while Binay gained traction in Southern Luzon and Bicol, where the Makati mayor took second position.

In the Visayas, Roxas gathered four more points, making him the current runaway leader with a 57 percent share of the votes over Legarda’s 20 percent and Binay’s 14 percent. Both Legarda and Binay suffered declines in the region.

In Mindanao, support for Roxas rose to 38 percent after losing a couple of points in the last survey. Legarda’s vote share was at 31 percent while Binay’s was at 17 percent.

Roxas further solidified his lead at 49 percent among the upper and middle classes as Legarda lost six points, down to only 10 percent, a far third, even as Binay shed two points, at 26 percent.

Among the poor, the standings remained virtually the same with Roxas, Legarda and Binay still at 40 percent, 22 percent and 24 percent, respectively.

Among the very poor, Roxas was way ahead with 41 percent, with Legarda at 30 percent and Binay at 17 percent.

Roxas also further strengthened his hold across age groups.  Legarda went down 9 points among those aged 18 to 24.

Legarda and Binay are in a tight race among the older age groups, with Binay maintaining his increases since the last survey.

Roxas also maintained a formidable lead over his rivals regardless of gender, picking up 40 percent endorsement among males and 41 percent among females.

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Categories: RECENT MST POLL NEWS

VILLAR CONTINUES TO SLIP AS ESTRADA NIBBLES AT MARGIN

April 26, 2010 2 comments

LIBERAL party candidate Benigno Aquino III maintained a 15-percentage point lead over his closest presidential rival, Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr., 38 percent to 23 percent, in the latest Manila Standard poll.

Conducted between April 18 and 20, the poll asked 2,500 respondents to cast their votes for president, vice president and 12 senators on a ballot similar to the May 10 form.  The survey had a margin of error of 2 percent on the national level.

Ousted President Joseph Estrada moved up one point to 19 percent, closing the gap between him and Villar, who lost three percentage points amid a continuous barrage of negative news against the Nacionalista standard bearer.

Administration candidate Gilbert Teodoro Jr. gained another point to 9 percent, indicating that the recent defections of local officials to the Liberal and Nacionalista partied had a minimal effect on the respondents.

Most of the other presidential candidates had the same vote share as in the April 4 to 6 Manila Standard survey: Evangelist Eddie Villanueva, 2 percent; Senator Richard Gordon and disqualified candidate Vetellano Acosta, 1 percent each.  Six percent of the voters continued to be undecided.

Manila Standard resident pollster Pedro Laylo Jr. said Villar’s continuing decline could be traced to the mostly negative news that voters had received about the candidate.

Among the leading presidential contenders, Villar had the most number of respondents — at 56 percent — reporting having received mostly negative news about him, compared to Aquino’s 48 percent and Estrada’s 46%.

Asked by reporters on the possibility that his attacks on Villar about the listing of his Vista Land shares could decisively tilt the outcome of the May 10 elections in favor of Aquino, Estrada said Sunday, “That’s destiny.”

Support in Metro Manila for Aquino surged to 38 percent after dropping 11 points in the April 4-6 survey.  Villar lost the most number of adherents, and he was now down to just 13 percent in the National Capital Region.  Estrada gained four points and was now at 24 percent, overtaking Villar, while Teodoro garnered 3 more points, jumping to 9 percent.

In North and Central Luzon, Aquino captured the lead for the first time with 30 percent to Villar’s depleted vote share of 25 percent. Estrada went up 6 percentage points and stood at 21 percent. Teodoro also gained 3 percentage points and finished with 11 percent.

In Southern Luzon and the Bicol region, Aquino’s tapered vote share in the last round bounced back to 40 percent as the other candidates generally stayed at the same levels as last month’s poll.

In the Visayas, Aquino cornered a clear majority with a 53 percent vote share, giving him a 29-point lead over Villar.

But support for Aquino in Mindanao declined to 31 percent. Both Villar and Estrada added 3 percentage points to 28 percent and 25 percent, respectively.  Teodoro gained 3 more points, moving up to 11 percent.

Aquino enjoyed strong support from the upper and middle classes, who gave him 46 percent of their vote.  Villar took only 14 percent, and Estrada 15 percent, in this income group.  Teodoro drew another 12 percent.

Despite the endorsements of Dolphy and Willie Revillame, Villar still lost traction among the D crowd, down to 27 percent from the previous ssurvey’s 29 percent.  Estrada and Teodoro, meanwhile, posted gains to 20 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

But Estrada lost three percentage points among the very poor, down to 19 percent, which went to Teodoro, who moved up to 9 percent.

By age group, Aquino continued to enjoy the lead among those aged 18 to 24, but Teodoro gained 8 points in this age bracket.

Among those in the 25-to-34 age bracket, Aquino continued to have the upper hand with Villar and Estrada tied for second.  Aquino’s vote share bounced up among the 35-to-44-year-olds, with Villar losing 3 percentage points, Estrada losing 1 point, and Teodoro moving up 2 points.  Among those aged 45 and older, Aquino had a 15-percentage point lead over Villar.

Aquino experienced a rebound among female voters, getting 41 percent of their votes against only 35 percent among the male voters.

Support for Villar among the women continued to drop even more, while Teodoro and Estrada had slight increases in support, especially among the male voters, over Villar.

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Categories: RECENT MST POLL NEWS

NO CHANGE IN TOP 16 IN SENATE RACE

April 13, 2010 Leave a comment

There was no change in the top 16 choices for senator in the latest Manila Standard survey of 2,500 registered voters conducted from April 4 to 6.

In the last three survey months, the top three places continued to be occupied by incumbent senators: Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr.,  Jinggoy Estrada and Miriam Defensor Santiago.

The top 16 in April were Revilla (54 percent),  Estrada (50 percent), Santiago (43 percent), Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (36 percent), Senator Pilar “Pia” Cayetano (35 percent), former Senator Vicente “Tito” Sotto III (31 percent), former Senator Franklin “Frank” Drilon (31 percent), former Senator Ralph Recto (26 percent), Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos (25 percent), Senator Lito Lapid (24 percent), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (19 percent), former Rep. Gilbert Remulla (18 percent), Mr. Jose “Joey” De Venecia III (18 percent), Gwendolyn Pimentel (16 percent), Teofisto Guingona III (16 percent), and Rozzano Ruffy Biazon (14 percent).

As in the previous Manila Standard 2010 polls, the respondents were asked to cast their votes for 12 senators together with their presidential and vice presidential choices in a ballot patterned after the official form that will be used in the May 10 election.

On average, voters chose only seven names for Senator.  Metro Manila, which previously registered the most number of preferences of about nine names chosen, fell to the national average in the April survey.

Those who did not shade any oval corresponding to their preference for Senator were considered as undecided.  They accounted for 10 percent of the voters.

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