LIBERAL party candidate Benigno Aquino III maintained a 15-percentage point lead over his closest presidential rival, Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr., 38 percent to 23 percent, in the latest Manila Standard poll.

Conducted between April 18 and 20, the poll asked 2,500 respondents to cast their votes for president, vice president and 12 senators on a ballot similar to the May 10 form.  The survey had a margin of error of 2 percent on the national level.

Ousted President Joseph Estrada moved up one point to 19 percent, closing the gap between him and Villar, who lost three percentage points amid a continuous barrage of negative news against the Nacionalista standard bearer.

Administration candidate Gilbert Teodoro Jr. gained another point to 9 percent, indicating that the recent defections of local officials to the Liberal and Nacionalista partied had a minimal effect on the respondents.

Most of the other presidential candidates had the same vote share as in the April 4 to 6 Manila Standard survey: Evangelist Eddie Villanueva, 2 percent; Senator Richard Gordon and disqualified candidate Vetellano Acosta, 1 percent each.  Six percent of the voters continued to be undecided.

Manila Standard resident pollster Pedro Laylo Jr. said Villar’s continuing decline could be traced to the mostly negative news that voters had received about the candidate.

Among the leading presidential contenders, Villar had the most number of respondents — at 56 percent — reporting having received mostly negative news about him, compared to Aquino’s 48 percent and Estrada’s 46%.

Asked by reporters on the possibility that his attacks on Villar about the listing of his Vista Land shares could decisively tilt the outcome of the May 10 elections in favor of Aquino, Estrada said Sunday, “That’s destiny.”

Support in Metro Manila for Aquino surged to 38 percent after dropping 11 points in the April 4-6 survey.  Villar lost the most number of adherents, and he was now down to just 13 percent in the National Capital Region.  Estrada gained four points and was now at 24 percent, overtaking Villar, while Teodoro garnered 3 more points, jumping to 9 percent.

In North and Central Luzon, Aquino captured the lead for the first time with 30 percent to Villar’s depleted vote share of 25 percent. Estrada went up 6 percentage points and stood at 21 percent. Teodoro also gained 3 percentage points and finished with 11 percent.

In Southern Luzon and the Bicol region, Aquino’s tapered vote share in the last round bounced back to 40 percent as the other candidates generally stayed at the same levels as last month’s poll.

In the Visayas, Aquino cornered a clear majority with a 53 percent vote share, giving him a 29-point lead over Villar.

But support for Aquino in Mindanao declined to 31 percent. Both Villar and Estrada added 3 percentage points to 28 percent and 25 percent, respectively.  Teodoro gained 3 more points, moving up to 11 percent.

Aquino enjoyed strong support from the upper and middle classes, who gave him 46 percent of their vote.  Villar took only 14 percent, and Estrada 15 percent, in this income group.  Teodoro drew another 12 percent.

Despite the endorsements of Dolphy and Willie Revillame, Villar still lost traction among the D crowd, down to 27 percent from the previous ssurvey’s 29 percent.  Estrada and Teodoro, meanwhile, posted gains to 20 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

But Estrada lost three percentage points among the very poor, down to 19 percent, which went to Teodoro, who moved up to 9 percent.

By age group, Aquino continued to enjoy the lead among those aged 18 to 24, but Teodoro gained 8 points in this age bracket.

Among those in the 25-to-34 age bracket, Aquino continued to have the upper hand with Villar and Estrada tied for second.  Aquino’s vote share bounced up among the 35-to-44-year-olds, with Villar losing 3 percentage points, Estrada losing 1 point, and Teodoro moving up 2 points.  Among those aged 45 and older, Aquino had a 15-percentage point lead over Villar.

Aquino experienced a rebound among female voters, getting 41 percent of their votes against only 35 percent among the male voters.

Support for Villar among the women continued to drop even more, while Teodoro and Estrada had slight increases in support, especially among the male voters, over Villar.

Tables MST Poll 04_18-20_2010 1st article 04210

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  1. April 26, 2010 at 2:43 pm

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