MANILA, Philippines–“Sustained bad news” may have been the reason for the continued decline in the survey ratings of Nacionalista Party (NP) standard bearer Manuel Villar Jr.

Since January 2010, Villar’s ratings in surveys by different polling firms gradually slipped to the 20′s range from comfortably staying in the mid-30 range.

Villar’s rating, so far, has not increased since the start of the campaign period. His latest ratings show his lowest performance.

Pedro Laylo Jr., resident pollster of Manila Standard Today (MST), told abs-cbnNews.com/Newsbreak that sustained negative news coverage, especially by television networks, caused Villar’s trust ratings to dwindle. This impacted heavily on his vote share. (Read more on the Laylo Reports.)

The latest MST survey showed that more than half (56%) of the 2,500 respondents said that they have received mostly negative news about Villar, compared to 3 other presidential aspirants, Benigno Aquino III, Joseph Estrada, and Gilberto Teodoro Jr.

He is followed by Aquino (48%), Estrada (46%), and Teodoro (44%).

According to communication strategist Malou Tiquia, the defections to the NP camp by Lakas-Kampi members could have been handled better by Villar’s camp. She said that Villar was “unfortunately” tagged “Villaroyo.”

Her analysis is that members were simply defecting, and it wasn’t because of Arroyo’s orders. “Defections in politics is all about who is the perceived winner,” she said.

TIMED EXPOSES

Villar has placed considerable volume of advertisements in broadcast stations, as well as flooded streets with his campaign paraphernalia. He has said that it’s his way of leveling the playing field, given the free exposure that most media outlets are giving his closest rival, Aquino.

Laylo said that advertisements no longer worked since voters began to rely heavily on earned media, more popularly known as television news, for information.

Aquino, starting in late February until the present, benefits the most because most voters say they are getting more positive news about him, Laylo said.

The MST survey conducted last March 21-23 showed that among those who would vote for Villar (26%) were exposed in the past week to news about him (68%), his television ads (82%), radio ads (30%), and print ads (15%).

In an earlier survey conducted by MST (February 20-26), news about the candidate (46%) is one of the helpful means in deciding to vote for him. This is only second to television commercials or ads, which was cited by 52% of the respondents.

Layo said in his report that “the candidates’ exposure and image” could explain why their ratings in the February survey were “almost unchanged” from the January survey. (Read his report titled Voters swayed by paid advertisements)

FOUR AGAINST ONE

“It’s very difficult to answer all allegations. It’s not one-on-one. It’s one versus four,” Tamano said, referring to Villar’s rivals, Maria Ana Consuelo “Jamby” Madrigal, Estrada, Richard Gordon, and the LP.

In November 2008, Madrigal alleged that Villar caused the double allocation in the budget for the same stretch of road that traversed the properties of his company. The issue was revived in the Senate in January 2010. She also alleged that Villar landgrabbed various agricultural lands for his real estate business.

This month, Estrada and Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino partymate Juan Ponce Enrile alleged that Villar influenced the stock exchange to favor the public listing of his company. Gordon claimed that Villar bribed him to not push through with the presidential race.

The NP claims that it was the LP that coined the term “Villaroyo,” saying that Villar is not a real oppositionist because he is the “secret candidate” of President Arroyo.

“They’re all hitting Manny [Villar] at the same time. There has been a flurry of negative campaigning. It’s below the belt,” Tamano said. (Read: Villar, Erap tie for 2^nd place)

Although Villar’s ratings are declining, Tamano said that they are confident they will catch up.

http://newsbreak.com.ph/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7778&Itemid=88889051

The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent, showed Roxas ahead at 38 percent nationwide, followed by Binay at 28 percent and Legarda at 20 percent.

Legarda lost three percentage points, while Binay picked up six. Administration bet Eduardo Manzano had 3 percent, while former Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando had 2 percent.  All the other candidates had ratings of 1 percent or lower.

Binay picked up most of his support from the very poor voters, said Pedro Laylo Jr., resident pollster at Manila Standard.  Roxas and Legarda lost three percentage points each in Metro Manila, while Binay gained five points.

Legarda also lost five points in South and Central Luzon, where Binay picked up six points.

Among the high-income group, Roxas lost eight points to 41 percent, while Binay gained eight points to 34 percent. Legarda gained 2 percent.

Binay picked up 11 points among the very poor voters, moving his vote share to 28 percent.  Roxas lost nine percentage points and Legarda two in the same income group.

Legarda said she was not concerned by Binay’s recent gains in the opinion surveys, telling a crowd on the campaign trail that in her long years as a politician, she had never met a person who admitted that he or she had taken a survey form from any of the established research companies.

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Conducted between April 25 and 27, the survey asked 2,500 registered voters who intend to vote in the May 10 elections to cast their votes for president, vice president and senators on a form similar to the official ballot that will be used on May 10.

The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent, showed Aquino ahead nationwide with 38 percent, followed by Estrada with 22 percent and Villar with 20 percent.  The margin of error meant Estrada and Villar can be considered in a statistical tie.

Administration bet Gilberto Teodoro Jr. maintained his 9-percent showing, while evangelist Eddie Villanueva edged up to 3 percent.  Senator Richard Gordon had 2 percent, while other candidates had less than 1 percent.

Manila Standard resident pollster Pedro Laylo Jr. said the latest poll showed that the spate of negative news about Villar had hurt the Nacionalista standard bearer, costing him support from the poor voters that he had won from Estrada.

In Metro Manila, Aquino’s support slipped one point to 37 percent from the previous week’s, while Estrada gained two points at 26 percent. Villar maintained his 13-percent share of the vote.

Aquino posted a three-point gain in North and Central Luzon, and largely at the expense of Estrada who lost three points to 18 percent. Villar maintained his 25-percent share in the region.

In last week’s survey, Estrada also picked up points in Southern Luzon and the Bicol region, the Visayas and Mindanao, mostly at Villar’s expense.

Estrada moved ahead after he attacked Villar in a press conference, accusing him of pressuring Stock Exchange officials to approve the listing of his real estate company, Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc.  Despite the attack, the ousted leader still slid 5 points in his ratings from the high-income voters, and merely maintained his 20-percent support from the poor.  But among the very poor, Estrada gained nine points, while Villar lost five points and Aquino lost two.

Tables MST Poll 04_25-27_2010 1st article 043010

Interviewed in-person last April 18 to 20, the 500 respondents were allocated and  selected proportionate to the voting population in each of the city’s six districts based on the February 2010 data of the Commission on Elections.  The margin of error for the city-wide results is +/-4 percentage points.

Lim had 61 percent of total votes, leaving Former mayor and Environment Secretary Joselito Atienza and Former National Police Chief Avelino Razon Jr. with 25 and 11 percent, respectively.

Resident pollster Pedro Laylo Jr. noted that the vote patterns vis-a-vis the December 2009 Standard poll stayed unchanged.

The April survey showed Lim obtaining the highest percentage in the 2nd District at 71 percent versus Atienza’s best showing in the 5th District at 39 percent.  Ma. Theresa Hizon got 0.2 percent and only 3 percent were undecided.

Among Lim voters, 73 percent were committed to him on election day.  Atienza had percent steadfast voters with Razon holding 55 percent loyal voters, poll results showed.

The top reasons cited for choosing Lim were his accomplishments as mayor, ability to curb crime/illegal activities, being pro-poor, and the perception that he is not corrupt.

Atienza is preferred for his experience and achievements as mayor, being pro-poor and approachable.

A good majority of Razon voters wanted to try his kind of leadership, citing his crime-fighting reputation as a former top police official.

In 14 traits presented, Lim was chosen by a majority as the candidate exemplifying eight attributes.

In the vice mayoral race, incumbent Isko Moreno kept the lead but compared to the December Standard poll, his 94 percent vote share tapered to 68 percent in the April survey.

Rival Councilor Bonjay Isip-Garcia cornered 24 percent while 10 percent of the respondents said they were undecided on their choice of the mayor’s running mate.

Tables MST Poll Mla0410 4th article 042710

Conducted between April 18 and 20, the poll asked 2,500 registered voters nationwide to cast their votes for president, vice president, and 12 senators.

As in the previous four surveys, the top three places went to Senators Ramon Revilla Jr. (50 percent), Jinggoy Estrada (49 percent), and Miriam Defensor-Santiago (41 percent).

This month, they were followed by Senate President Juan Ponce-Enrile (37 percent), Senator Pia Cayetano (33 percent), former Senator Franklin Drilon (32 percent), former Senators Ralph Recto and Vicente Sotto III (both with 28 percent), Marcos (27 percent), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (25 percent), Senator Lito Lapid (23 percent), and de Venecia (19 percent).

The 13th to 16th positions were occupied by Gwendolyn Pimentel (17 percent), former Rep. Gilbert Remulla (17 percent), Rep. Teofisto Guingona III (16 percent) and Rep. Rozzano Rufino Biazon (16 percent).

As in previous polls, the respondents were asked to accomplish a form that was designed to look like the official ballots to be used in the May 10 automated elections.  The survey had a margin of error of 2 percent.

Voters, on average, chose seven names for senator.

Those who did not shade any ovals corresponding to their preferences for senator were considered undecided, a category that rose to 12 percent.

Tables MST Poll 04_18-20_2010 3rd article 042510

Binay was the choice of 22 percent of the 2,500 respondents in the April 18 to 20 survey, placing him in a statistical tie with Legarda, said Manila Standard resident pollster Pedro Laylo Jr.

Former Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando obtained 3 percent, while administration bet Eduardo Manzano took 2 percent.

Roxas regained the lead in Metro Manila with 37 percent, but Binay was at his heels with 35 percent.  Compared to the April 4 to 6 survey, Binay lost 4 percentage points while Roxas gained 6 points.  Legarda also picked up a 2-percentage point increase, staying in third place with just 13 percent.  The number of undecided voters slipped to 9 percent from the previous month’s 11 percent.

Roxas stayed ahead of Legarda and Binay in the North, Central and South Luzon and Bicol regions.  Legarda’s vote share continued to slide, while Binay gained traction in Southern Luzon and Bicol, where the Makati mayor took second position.

In the Visayas, Roxas gathered four more points, making him the current runaway leader with a 57 percent share of the votes over Legarda’s 20 percent and Binay’s 14 percent. Both Legarda and Binay suffered declines in the region.

In Mindanao, support for Roxas rose to 38 percent after losing a couple of points in the last survey. Legarda’s vote share was at 31 percent while Binay’s was at 17 percent.

Roxas further solidified his lead at 49 percent among the upper and middle classes as Legarda lost six points, down to only 10 percent, a far third, even as Binay shed two points, at 26 percent.

Among the poor, the standings remained virtually the same with Roxas, Legarda and Binay still at 40 percent, 22 percent and 24 percent, respectively.

Among the very poor, Roxas was way ahead with 41 percent, with Legarda at 30 percent and Binay at 17 percent.

Roxas also further strengthened his hold across age groups.  Legarda went down 9 points among those aged 18 to 24.

Legarda and Binay are in a tight race among the older age groups, with Binay maintaining his increases since the last survey.

Roxas also maintained a formidable lead over his rivals regardless of gender, picking up 40 percent endorsement among males and 41 percent among females.

Tables MST Poll 04_18-20_2010 2nd article 042410

Conducted between April 18 and 20, the poll asked 2,500 respondents to cast their votes for president, vice president and 12 senators on a ballot similar to the May 10 form.  The survey had a margin of error of 2 percent on the national level.

Ousted President Joseph Estrada moved up one point to 19 percent, closing the gap between him and Villar, who lost three percentage points amid a continuous barrage of negative news against the Nacionalista standard bearer.

Administration candidate Gilbert Teodoro Jr. gained another point to 9 percent, indicating that the recent defections of local officials to the Liberal and Nacionalista partied had a minimal effect on the respondents.

Most of the other presidential candidates had the same vote share as in the April 4 to 6 Manila Standard survey: Evangelist Eddie Villanueva, 2 percent; Senator Richard Gordon and disqualified candidate Vetellano Acosta, 1 percent each.  Six percent of the voters continued to be undecided.

Manila Standard resident pollster Pedro Laylo Jr. said Villar’s continuing decline could be traced to the mostly negative news that voters had received about the candidate.

Among the leading presidential contenders, Villar had the most number of respondents — at 56 percent — reporting having received mostly negative news about him, compared to Aquino’s 48 percent and Estrada’s 46%.

Asked by reporters on the possibility that his attacks on Villar about the listing of his Vista Land shares could decisively tilt the outcome of the May 10 elections in favor of Aquino, Estrada said Sunday, “That’s destiny.”

Support in Metro Manila for Aquino surged to 38 percent after dropping 11 points in the April 4-6 survey.  Villar lost the most number of adherents, and he was now down to just 13 percent in the National Capital Region.  Estrada gained four points and was now at 24 percent, overtaking Villar, while Teodoro garnered 3 more points, jumping to 9 percent.

In North and Central Luzon, Aquino captured the lead for the first time with 30 percent to Villar’s depleted vote share of 25 percent. Estrada went up 6 percentage points and stood at 21 percent. Teodoro also gained 3 percentage points and finished with 11 percent.

In Southern Luzon and the Bicol region, Aquino’s tapered vote share in the last round bounced back to 40 percent as the other candidates generally stayed at the same levels as last month’s poll.

In the Visayas, Aquino cornered a clear majority with a 53 percent vote share, giving him a 29-point lead over Villar.

But support for Aquino in Mindanao declined to 31 percent. Both Villar and Estrada added 3 percentage points to 28 percent and 25 percent, respectively.  Teodoro gained 3 more points, moving up to 11 percent.

Aquino enjoyed strong support from the upper and middle classes, who gave him 46 percent of their vote.  Villar took only 14 percent, and Estrada 15 percent, in this income group.  Teodoro drew another 12 percent.

Despite the endorsements of Dolphy and Willie Revillame, Villar still lost traction among the D crowd, down to 27 percent from the previous ssurvey’s 29 percent.  Estrada and Teodoro, meanwhile, posted gains to 20 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

But Estrada lost three percentage points among the very poor, down to 19 percent, which went to Teodoro, who moved up to 9 percent.

By age group, Aquino continued to enjoy the lead among those aged 18 to 24, but Teodoro gained 8 points in this age bracket.

Among those in the 25-to-34 age bracket, Aquino continued to have the upper hand with Villar and Estrada tied for second.  Aquino’s vote share bounced up among the 35-to-44-year-olds, with Villar losing 3 percentage points, Estrada losing 1 point, and Teodoro moving up 2 points.  Among those aged 45 and older, Aquino had a 15-percentage point lead over Villar.

Aquino experienced a rebound among female voters, getting 41 percent of their votes against only 35 percent among the male voters.

Support for Villar among the women continued to drop even more, while Teodoro and Estrada had slight increases in support, especially among the male voters, over Villar.

Tables MST Poll 04_18-20_2010 1st article 04210

In the latest poll, conducted April 4 to 6 or just over a month before election day, Liberal Party presidential candidate Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III kept a double-digit lead over his closest rival Nacionalista Party bet Sen. Manny Villar.

In his survey commentary, Manila Standard’s resident pollster Pedro Laylo Jr., formerly with Social Weather Stations (SWS), said what has helped Aquino “maintain the upper hand” are the high levels of news awareness about him, mostly positive news, especially from television.

“The latest poll gives a glimpse into how the mass media, particularly television news, are influencing the voting public by framing the agenda. In the case of the current status of the presidential race, what the media report has created an effect on presidential vote decisions,” Laylo said.

Laylo said the “extent of news awareness” for Aquino was at 73% compared to Villar’s 79%; Estrada’s was at 60%; Teodoro’s was at 55%.

The Manila Standard poll asked voters to qualify whether the news they received about the candidate were positive or negative. (Extent of news awareness is different from whether news is positive or negative.)

“The results show Aquino having an edge with 75% of those aware of news about him saying they received mostly positive news,” Laylo said. “For Villar, the figure was only 62%; for Estrada, only 52%; and for Teodoro, only 58%.”

In terms of negative news, it was highest for Estrada with 48%; Teodoro with 42%; Villar with 38; Aquino with 25%.

“The multiplier effect works to the advantage of Aquino, who has significantly more voters saying that the kind of news they have received regarding him were mostly positive,” Laylo said.

Aquino keeps double-digit lead

The survey, conducted between April 4 to 6 among 2,500 respondents, had Aquino still in the lead with 37% while Villar was at 26%.

Their rankings were statistically the same as the March 21 to 28 survey by Pulse Asia released last week, April 6, where Aquino had 37% while Villar had 25%

Teodoro went up slightly from 6% in March to 8% in first week of April, while Estrada gained one 1 percentage point.

Those undecided increased from 4% in March to 9% in April. The 9% undecided was the same as in the Pulse Asia survey.

TV most influential

The Manila Standard poll said a “great majority–ranging from 80% to 85%–of voters nationwide trust TV programs as their major source of news.”

Only 9% cited radio programs, 6% cited word of mouth, and 1% cited newspapers.

“The rise of television as the medium by which most voters secure information on candidates, specifically those running for the highest posts, has become prevalent in past election,” Laylo said.

When asked which TV news programs voters considered trustworthy, Laylo said “60 to 63 percent of the viewing public considered news and public affairs programs from the ABS-CBN network compared to about 35 to 38% who mentioned news and public affairs programs from the GMA network. About 2 percent mentioned news programs from other TV networks.”

“Positive TV news coverage generates greater trust, which in turn translates into a higher vote conversion for presidential candidates,” Laylo said.

Binay catches up for 2nd place

In the same survey, Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas of the Liberal Party kept a big 15-point lead over Loren Legarda of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC).

Roxas had 39% support compared to Legarda’s 24%.

As in the Pulse Asia survey, Manila Standard’s poll showed Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay with 22%, which means he had caught up with Legarda, given the survey’s plus/minus 2% margin of error.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/04/12/10/positive-news-help-aquino-keep-lead-poll

In the last three survey months, the top three places continued to be occupied by incumbent senators: Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr.,  Jinggoy Estrada and Miriam Defensor Santiago.

The top 16 in April were Revilla (54 percent),  Estrada (50 percent), Santiago (43 percent), Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (36 percent), Senator Pilar “Pia” Cayetano (35 percent), former Senator Vicente “Tito” Sotto III (31 percent), former Senator Franklin “Frank” Drilon (31 percent), former Senator Ralph Recto (26 percent), Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos (25 percent), Senator Lito Lapid (24 percent), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (19 percent), former Rep. Gilbert Remulla (18 percent), Mr. Jose “Joey” De Venecia III (18 percent), Gwendolyn Pimentel (16 percent), Teofisto Guingona III (16 percent), and Rozzano Ruffy Biazon (14 percent).

As in the previous Manila Standard 2010 polls, the respondents were asked to cast their votes for 12 senators together with their presidential and vice presidential choices in a ballot patterned after the official form that will be used in the May 10 election.

On average, voters chose only seven names for Senator.  Metro Manila, which previously registered the most number of preferences of about nine names chosen, fell to the national average in the April survey.

Those who did not shade any oval corresponding to their preference for Senator were considered as undecided.  They accounted for 10 percent of the voters.

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The January and February 2010 Laylo Reports explained how political ads of presidential candidates accounted for the dynamics of the presidential votes at that time.  The March 2010 Laylo Report expounded on how news awareness about presidential candidates affected voter preferences for president.  The April 4-6, 2010 Manila Standard poll further explores this aspect of the vote and has found out that the kind of news voters receive have a significant impact on presidential preferences.

In the recent survey, Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino continues to lead the pack and his margin over Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr. is 11 percentage points. What has helped him maintain this upper hand?

The latest poll gives a glimpse into how the mass media, particularly television news, are influencing the voting public by framing the agenda. In the case of the current status of the presidential race, what the media report, to a certain extent, has created an effect on presidential vote decisions.

News Awareness and Type of News Received

The extent of news awareness of voters on Presidential candidates remains high, especially for the top two contenders: Aquino (73 percent) and Villar (79 percent).  Levels of news awareness for Estrada and Teodoro are also in the majorities (60 percent and 55 percent respectively) but not as high as those of Aquino and Villar.

For the April 4-6 Standard Poll, voters were also asked to qualify, on the overall, whether the kind of news they have received regarding the candidates were mostly positive or mostly negative. Results show Aquino having an edge — with 75 percent of those aware of news about him saying they received mostly positive news.

For Villar, the figure was only 62 percent; for Estrada, only 52 percent; and for Teodoro, only 58 percent.  The percentages of those who received mostly negative news about the presidential candidates are as follows: 25 percent for Aquino, 38 percent for Villar, 48 percent for Estrada and 42 percent for Teodoro.

The impact of access to news and the quality of news voters received about presidential candidates can be assessed by looking at the vote conversion rates.

Aquino’s 37 percent vote share jumps to 41 percent among those who were aware of news about him and jumps even higher to 48 percent among those who say that the kind of news they received about him were mostly positive.

For Villar, his 25 percent vote share only delivers a measly 28 percent if they are aware of news about him and moves to only 34 percent among those who assessed that the type of news they received about him were positive.

The multiplier effect works to the advantage of Aquino who has significantly more voters saying that the kind of news they have received regarding him were mostly positive.

Given that the vote conversion rates of Estrada, Teodoro and all the other presidential candidates are much lower coupled with the relatively lower levels of news awareness as well as lower levels of perceived positive news generated about them, they currently stand little to gain in terms of votes.

The Trust Factor

Trust levels of candidates also continue to play an important part in explaining the presidential race. The latest survey continued to show declines in net trust ratings for the leading contenders. But it is important to note that Aquino’s drops in net trust levels (from +54 in February to +50 in March to +46 in early April) were not as bad as Villar’s decreasing net trust levels (from a high +53 in February to +35 in March to +28 in early April). For the other presidential contenders, their net trust levels were all way below the two leading contenders.

The trust-to-vote conversion rates offer additional evidence of why Aquino continues to lead the presidential race.  Aquino’s voter conversion rate among those who trust him continues to be high at 55 percent – an eight-point jump from 47 percent in February. In the case of Villar, it moved by only three points up — from 43 percent in February to 46 percent in April.

Relationship of Type of News Received and Trust in Presidentiables

What is the relationship between the types of news received by voters on the presidential candidates with their levels of trust for them?  Tests of correlation show that the kind of news received by voters drive the level of trust voters have on presidential candidates.

This means that the more positive news voters say they received about a candidate, the greater trust they have for that specific candidate.

Most Trusted Source of News

Where do voters get most of their information?  In the series of Manila Standard polls, voters were asked their most trusted source of news.  A great majority — ranging from 80 percent to 85 percent — of voters nationwide trust TV programs as their major source of news.

Only about 9 percent cite radio programs, 6 percent cite  word of mouth, and 1 percent cite newspapers.  The rise of television as the medium by which most voters secure information on candidates, specifically those running for the highest posts, has become prevalent in past election years.

When probed on what TV news programs voters considered most trustworthy, around 60 to 63 percent of the viewing public considers news and public affairs programs from the ABS-CBN network compared to about 35 to 38 percent who mentioned news and public affairs programs from the GMA network. About 2 percent mentioned news programs from other TV networks.

Linking this with the type of news received by the voting public for each of the presidential candidates, we now can see a better picture of how Aquino was able to maintain his current lead in the presidential race.  Positive TV news coverage generates greater trust, which in turn translates into a higher vote conversion for presidential candidates.

It is also a clear indication of how the mass media – particularly TV news – are currently influencing how the voting public should view the presidential candidates, thus affecting their vote decisions.

In the succeeding Manila Standard polls, as we get closer to Election Day, we shall see if such a pattern persists and if it will define the final presidential election results.

The results of the Manila Standard Today surveys and The Laylo Report can be accessed in the web at http://mstpoll.wordpress.com. Questions, comments can be sent via email to mstpoll@gmail.com.

Tables TV NEWS COVERAGE AFFECT CURRENT PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES 0410-RP